Saturday, February 10, 2007

Grossman for MVP

During the Super Bowl, the assembled group discussed who should win the MVP award. I argued that, should the Colts win, Rex Grossman deserved to win. No one contributed more to the Colts victory than Rex.

In yesterday's blog post,'s Bill Simmons agreed, stating, "couldn't you have made a legitimate case for Rex Grossman winning the MVP? What single player did more to affect that game for the Colts? Think about the definition of that award -- it goes to the most valuable player on the field, right? Who was more valuable to that final score than Rex?"

Now, I find evidence that the betting markets agree. Real time analysis of the change in probability of a Colts victory shows, "Rex Grossman’s poor play contributed 36.5% to the Colts’ chance of winning, more than twice as much as the top performing Colt."

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