Wednesday, September 16, 2009

For Jim

Here's the paper I mentioned in my office today:
Game theory makes strong predictions about how individuals should behave in two player, zero sum games. When players follow a mixed strategy, equilibrium payoffs should be equalized across actions, and choices should be serially uncorrelated. Laboratory experiments have generated large and systematic deviations from the minimax predictions. Data gleaned from real-world settings have been more consistent with minimax, but these latter studies have often been based on small samples with low power to reject. In this paper, we explore minimax play in two high stakes, real world settings that are data rich: choice of pitch type in Major League Baseball and whether to run or pass in the National Football League. We observe more than three million pitches in baseball and 125,000 play choices for football. We find systematic deviations from minimax play in both data sets. Pitchers appear to throw too many fastballs; football teams pass less than they should. In both sports, there is negative serial correlation in play calling. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that correcting these decision making errors could be worth as many as two additional victories a year to a Major League Baseball franchise, and more than a half win per season for a professional football team.

In theory the baseball idea of throwing more offspeed could work. But the cost of throwing more offspeed is that it makes hitters realize pitcher tendencies and quite honestly when you know a curveball is coming you can hit it a really long way. Also, a pitcher would have to execute his pitches correctly. Throwing a curveball is more dificult then throwing a fastball and locating a curveball is harder as well. So execution is key in this matter.

The Football theory also makes sense. Look at the two teams who have remained undefeated in the NFL to this point in the season. The Colts and the Saints are passing teams with amazing Qb's. when they have talent like that they have a big advantage. On the other hand look at some of the other teams who pass a lot such as the Buccaneers and Lions and they both suck. Winning with passing is determinant upon the talent that is throwing the ball, end of story. As a coach you have to make a game plan the features your strengths and teams that do that are successful.
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