Saturday, September 12, 2009

From the archive: Correlation is not Causation

Mark Thoma posts about correlation not implying causation and points to this gem from the Simpsons:

Homer: Not a bear in sight. The "Bear Patrol" is working like a
charm!

Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.

Homer: [uncomprehendingly] Thanks, honey.

Lisa: By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.

Homer: Hmm. How does it work?

Lisa: It doesn't work; it's just a stupid rock!

Homer: Uh-huh.

Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?

Homer: (pause) Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

// posted by BW @ 2:49 PM
Comments:
People do the same as Homer a whole lot! In fact, given subjectivity, it may be impossible to think we know anything without assuming correlations to be causations. But in order to explain the universe, we have scientific metrics for establishing degrees of certainty of the difference or lack thereof between the two.
I'm a philosophical man. I like to think we can know things, if only by defining knowledge in a special, self-evident, ultimately probably futile way.
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