Thursday, September 17, 2009
The Marshmallow Test
Oh, The Temptation from Steve V on Vimeo.
While the video is cute, it turns out that this experiment can reveal a great deal about who these kids become later in life. The original version was conducted in the 1960s and the researchers have continued follow the subjects over time and found some interesting stuff:
But occasionally Mischel would ask his three daughters, all of whom attended the Bing, about their friends from nursery school. “It was really just idle dinnertime conversation,” he says. “I’d ask them, ‘How’s Jane? How’s Eric? How are they doing in school?’ ” Mischel began to notice a link between the children’s academic performance as teen-agers and their ability to wait for the second marshmallow. He asked his daughters to assess their friends academically on a scale of zero to five. Comparing these ratings with the original data set, he saw a correlation. “That’s when I realized I had to do this seriously,” he says. Starting in 1981, Mischel sent out a questionnaire to all the reachable parents, teachers, and academic advisers of the six hundred and fifty-three subjects who had participated in the marshmallow task, who were by then in high school. He asked about every trait he could think of, from their capacity to plan and think ahead to their ability to “cope well with problems” and get along with their peers. He also requested their S.A.T. scores.
Once Mischel began analyzing the results, he noticed that low delayers, the children who rang the bell quickly, seemed more likely to have behavioral problems, both in school and at home. They got lower S.A.T. scores. They struggled in stressful situations, often had trouble paying attention, and found it difficult to maintain friendships. The child who could wait fifteen minutes had an S.A.T. score that was, on average, two hundred and ten points higher than that of the kid who could wait only thirty seconds.
PS. The kids were really cute!
It's interesting to read about these studies and how researchers are developing methods that help predict how the children will turn out. In the New York Times article, the issue that "there is a popular belief that executive-function skills are fixed early on, a function of genes and parenting" is brought up. I wonder how large a part of the skills stem from genes and how influential parenting is.
So, this video seems to imply that those who delay (who, it would seem, do not greatly discount their future selves) have better scores, behavior, etc. Yet sometimes, taking the money (or in this case, marshmallows) now is more rational.
I have a question, which will probably be answered by more classes in micro: at what point does it become more rational to take the current than to wait? I know that very much depends on parameters given...and what some micro problems are about.
But then again, maybe there's a supersecret insult to certain wings of economists in the conclusion (which also lends itself to hilarious images of brokers breaking out into fistfights). hahahahaha.
And what if a kid does not like marshmallow?
Oh and Bakheet that is bad dude...haha. Would make it interesting though.
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