Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Health Care Costs and Wages
"There are a few things economists believe in our souls so strongly that we have a hard time actually explaining them," he said. "One is that free trade is good and another is that health-care costs come out of wages." To put it another way: Economists are pretty united on this point. A firm's compensation for its workers is pretty static, and if relatively more goes to health-care costs, relatively less will go to wages, and vice-versa. But this isn't just a matter of theory. The following graph charts the percent growth in the median household income versus the percent growth in health-care costs since 1990. The correlation is striking:
The correlation between the two data sets is -0.8, which is incredibly high for this sort of thing. To give you an idea, I also ran the correlation between GDP growth and median wages over the period: It was 0.7, which is to say that there was a weaker connection between economic growth and median wages than between health-care costs and median wages.
There is, in other words, very good evidence that employers pass health-care savings onto employees. A Rand study by Dana Goldman, Neeraj Sood and Arleen Leibowitz examined a particular firm's response to a period of premium increases and found that "about two-thirds of the premium increase is financed out of cash wages and the remaining one-thirds is financed by a reduction in benefits." Another study by Katherine Baicker and Amitabh Chandra found that a 10 percent increase in premiums "results in an offsetting decrease in wages of 2.3 percent," which is fairly impressive given that income is much higher than health-care premiums.There's good reason to think that if health-care costs can be tamed, wages will rise. But one of the big problems in health-care reform is that workers don't understand this connection. They think of health-care coverage as a "benefit," rather than a form of compensation engaged in a fairly zero-sum competition against their wages.
Performing nip-tucks with Medicare and being stingy with subsidies doesn't really get to the heart of cost-cutting.
Do we have any studies showing a drop in insurance costs followed by bigger-than-usual raises for the staff?
Have the airlines' extra baggage fees disappeared now that gas prices are down?
OR maybe it is all just wishful thinking.
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