Thursday, November 26, 2009

Behavioral Economics and Thanksgiving

From Ezra Klein:

It happens every year. It's not that you resolve to be virtuous on Thanksgiving, just reasonable. Two plates of food, and no more. One piece of pie, and that's enough. But when you're sitting at that table, staring at that food, there is no more self-control. No more reasonable. You stop when you can hardly breathe.

Or maybe I'm projecting. This column, however, will not be about exercising self-control at the table. It's Thanksgiving! Rather, this column will be about something far more powerful: exercising some economic principles.

For a long time, economists operated under the "rational actor model." Human beings were thought to be rational creatures who correctly weighed costs and benefits and calculated the best choices for themselves. Then some economists met some human beings and realized we don't really work like that. The result has been the rise of "behavioral economics," which attempts to build the responses of actual human beings into its models.

MIT economist Dan Ariely is a pioneer in the field. His bestselling book "Predictably Irrational" is as good an introduction to the discipline as you'll find. Human beings, he argues, aren't just irrational: They are irrational in predictable ways and in predictable circumstances. That means we can plan for that irrationality beforehand, when we're still feeling rational.

I asked Ariely how he would set up his Thanksgiving feast to limit overeating without having to exercise self-control. His answer was to construct the "architecture" of the meal beforehand. Create conditions that guide people toward good choices, or even use their irrationality to your benefit.

"Move to chopsticks!" he exclaimed, making bites smaller and harder to take. If the chopsticks are a bit extreme, smaller plates and utensils might work the same way. Study after study shows that people eat more when they have more in front of them. It's one of our predictable irrationalities: We judge portions by how much is left rather than how full we feel. Smaller portions lead us to eat less, even if we can refill the plate.

Speaking of which, Ariely suggests placing the food "far away." In this case, serve from the kitchen rather than the table. If people have to get up to add another scoop of mashed potatoes, they're less likely to take their fifth serving than if they simply have to reach in front of them.

"Start with a soup course," he says. That is what economists refer to as a default: Rather than putting everything on the table for people to choose, you begin by making the choice for your guests. If the first course is relatively filling and relatively low in calories, everyone will eat less during the rest of the meal.

Indeed, it's not a bad idea to limit the total number of courses. Variety stimulates appetite. As evidence, Ariely brings up a study conducted on mice. A male mouse and a female mouse will soon tire of mating with each other. But put new partners into the cage, and it turns out they weren't tired at all. They were just bored. So, too, with food. "Imagine you only had one dish," he says. "How much could you eat?"

What you eat, of course, is also important. Studies show that people aren't very consistent in the amount of calories they eat each day, but they're very consistent in the volume of food they eat each day. Thanksgiving is an exception to that consistency, but probably not to the underlying rule. Satisfaction doesn't depend on caloric intake; low-calorie, high-fiber foods and foods high in water content are filling. Thus, the more broccoli rabe there is at the table, the better.

Speaking of which, take a page out of the pilgrims' book and make sure all the food at the table was cooked by someone in the house. Economists believe that the obesity epidemic is largely attributable to the rise in food we don't make for ourselves. In 1900, it was hard to snack on potato chips because it was time-consuming for a member of the household to make potato chips. Today, of course, things are different, and there is a surfeit of vending machines and drive-throughs and supermarkets. But on Thanksgiving, make like you're in Plymouth, and ensure all of the food is homemade. There will be fewer calories available if Grandma's stuffing isn't supplemented with bowls of chips and cheese.

For all that, Ariely's main advice is not to worry too much about Turkey Day. "I don't think Thanksgiving is a time to watch your diet," he says. "How many calories can you put away in a day? Maybe 5,000 or 6,000 calories, if you really try hard." The problem, he says, is another human irrationality: remembering to pay attention to the season's big meals but not the everyday ones in between. The solution to overeating, Ariely says, "comes from [making] small changes across many normal meals."

That seems rational. But if you insist on trying to cut back at Thanksgiving, Ariely does have one more piece of advice: "Wear a very tight shirt."


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5000 to 6000 calories are about to be consumed. I'm wearing a baggy shirt and I'll be diving in with a spoon and fork. I've no restraints
 
Isn't "moving to chopsticks" a form of self-control? I don't quite buy that the key to limiting overeating comes without having to exercise self-control; rather, I feel that, to compensate for our irrational, "future" selves, we would need to be more rational in the present, that is, by exerting more self-control sooner rather than later.
 
Planning ahead to limit overeating without having to exercise self-control. I agree it works. It's even more biochemistry than it is economics. For example if you eat more variety you will intake a larger variety of spices that will trigger more cravings. If you eat with chopsticks, you will eat slower, digest your food slower, get full more quickly, but more importantly you will have enough time to intake a breath of air without food and maybe make the conscious realization that your stomach is full.
 
El dia de acion de gracias no es un dia para estar en dieta. Todos deben comer mucho y rico, porque asi es la costumbre. El porblema con este dia es que todo es una mentira; los nativos y los peregrinos no sentaron en una mesa para compartir sus comidas. Me parece que fue mas como los nativos regalaron su maiz y los peregrinos regalaron sus enfermedades.
 
Another good source for examples of successful (and unsuccessful) choice architecture can be found in the book Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein. One case involves school cafeterias and the placement of healthy foods in the lunch line. If fruits and vegetables are at eye level and snacks and junk food are relatively out of reach, kids will tend to eat more balanced meals.
 
I have a high level of doubt that anyone has ever become obese from eating too much food and dessert at Thanksgiving dinner, even if one were to overeat and eat an immense amount of food, the most you'd ever gain is 2 or 3 lbs.
It’s the rest of the days that kill us, as opposed to the few holidays/vacations.

Consuming more vegetables (broccoli) , isn't there an economic issue here for poor people, and even the middle class? The more fresh vegetables a person buy, the higher the grocery bill. It seems to me that this is an important issue to be addressed: making fresh vegetables more affordable. (We won't even talk about organic.)
 
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On the topic of affordable vegetables, the problem isn't just that they are too expensive but rather that alternatives are relatively too cheap (potato chips, white bread, Kraft). Rather than taking on subsidized corn, etc., maybe a public service campaign stressing brown rice/beans (also relatively cheap) instead of these alternatives might be a good start
 
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I agree that overeating on thanksgiving is probably not the crux of any problem. I for one didn't eat quite as much as I would have liked to. I'd like to introduce what I'm going to call the guilt factor. I had thanksgiving with a bunch of friends of mine. A few of them made things that I didn't really like. But I put them on my plate so as not to be rude and then when I found that I didn't want to finish them I couldn't go back to get more mashed potatoes because I still had food on my plate and again I didn't want anyone to know that I didn't like their dishes, so I just settled for what was on my plate. Luckily, I had foreseen this problem and put a nice big mountain of mashed potatoes on my plate in the beginning. So I really can't complain. I ate lots of cheesy delicious potatoes.
 
It seems like the optimally-placed Thanksgiving dinner table would be one in which the food is indeed on the table (to maintain the benefits of continuous social cohesion) but the highest-calorie foods were placed at the center e.g. pie, so that they were the maximum-possible distance from each diner, and the healther foods e.g. salad, were intersperced in several serving dishes around the edge of the table to encourage people to consume the lo-cal "low-hanging fruit."
 
Another option would be to limit the amount of time food is placed at the dinner table. A prolonged duration allows for food to be digested and seconds (and thirds) to be had. If food does not linger, it increases the costs of eating more:

1. Food's in the kitchen and it takes more work to get to.
2. Depending on the family, peer effects could discourages seconds runs after food is put away (i.e., you're seen as a pig).

Granted, a weakness in this is that if people know that the food will be taken away quickly, they'll take larger portions...
 
If people were to use chopsticks all the time and not just on thanksgiving maybe he would have a point here, but how much time would it cost people to use chopsticks everyday for every meal? It would take longer and I don't think that would work very well for a lot of people. On the other hand, smaller plates and keeping food in the kitchen are good ideas.
 
Perhaps because Thanksgiving is a holiday based on celebrating food, people feel more free to consume more...
However limiting overeating is probably best accomplished with Natalie's suggestion of acting more rational in the present so that the future self can "act up" as it were, evening out the odds of enormous health costs.
Thanksgiving isn't that harmful if it's only only done once a year. The greater issue is probably the fact that people eat thanksgiving calories every day by eating a ton of really bad fast food.
 
I've never had a problem with overeating, my problem is undereating. Even during Thanksgiving, I'm always told by a somewhat severe grandmother that I don't eat enough and don't I want more? with a look of incredulity and exasperation.
But despite parental pressure, there's no general social stigma against undereating, really. There isn't really a generalized, societal support network for undereaters like there is for overeaters (all sorts of diet food, etc.), I think because there are fewer of us, or it's more likely to be called a disorder. Hmm.
 
The tight shirt idea is pretty funny. For me, and I'm strange, I've been more concerned with how to keep calories than how to lose them. Ive been skinny all my life, and have this idea of weighing more. I started an experiment over the summer in which I do not eat sugar, dairy, gluten, or alcohol. Just to see what it felt like. Its been 7 months so far. I view sugar much differently now. It used to kind of creep up on me during the day... after stress or just when bored. The need for sweets. Now, looking at candy and deserts kinda revolts me. We are an oversweet culture. I try to remember why I liked sweets so much in the first place when they now seem like overly strong, acidic bites of death after so many months of broccoli and quinoa. I cant remember. Is it advertising?
 
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For instance, an $eighty therapeutic therapeutic massage could be acquired by the buyer for $forty by implies of Groupon, and then Groupon and the retailer would split up the $forty. That is, the retailer delivers a therapeutic massage valued at $80 and will get around $20 from Groupon for it (beneath a fifty%/fifty% break up). Or, if $240 nicely really worth of house portray options is received by the customer for $fifty through Groupon, then the organization gets $twenty five and Groupon retains $twenty five. The consumer will get the therapeutic massage, or the house portray service provider, in these examples, from the retailer for which they at very first compensated $forty (or $50) to Groupon. There are certain businesses to which Groupon initially did not offer you its providers, which includes taking pictures ranges and strip golfing gear even so, getting photographs ranges have been showcased on Groupon.

In contrast to categorized marketing, the service provider does not invest any upfront price to consider part: Groupon collects personal information from geared up customers and then contacts only those consumers, largely by every single working day electronic mail, who could possibly be fascinated in a specific answer or services.

Groupon employs a huge quantity of copywriters who draft descriptions for the bargains highlighted by electronic mail and on the site. Groupon's marketing textual articles for the 'deals' has been noticed as a contributing element to the recognition of the web site, that involves a unique mix of extensive reality-examining and witty humor.

Owing to Groupon's market currently being largely composed of woman customers, the discount rates are frequently centered on the wellness, overall health and splendor markets.

There are possible troubles with the organization design. For illustration, a worthwhile supply could rapidly swamp a little business with way too a lot of consumers, jeopardizing a probability that buyers will be dissatisfied, or that there won't be satisfactory remedy to fulfill the need. Gap, a huge garments retailer, was in a placement to offer with 445,000 coupons in a countrywide offer you (although it seasoned server concerns at a single point), but a smaller sized enterprise could turn out to be abruptly flooded with consumers. 1 coffee retailer in Portland, Oregon struggled with an increase in clientele for 3 months, when it sold near to 1,000 Groupons on the 1 operating day it was introduced, in accordance to a single specific report. In reaction to equal problems, Groupon officers point out that 'deal' subscriptions should be capped in development to a reasonably priced variety.

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